EntertainmentMulti-outcomeExpires May 4, 2026
Creator

Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 11.5m and 12.5m?

Probability

88¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+51.0pp

24h Vol

$2.4K

Liquidity

$711.84

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 4, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its fifth weekend
Link
the-numbers.com
Type
Ambiguous wording
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Market expires May 4, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 30, 2026, 16:00May 3, 2026, 21:43
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 51pp over 24h

    Now 88¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 14h.

  • 03
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $712 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 14 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 12:00Resolve

    Market resolves in 14.3h

    HIGH
  • 21:43Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 14h.

    MEDIUM

Price movement

+51.0pp over the last 24h, now 88¢.

Biggest hourly move: +62.5pp at 17:00 (to 90¢).

Show top 8 of 11 hourly moves
  • 21:00 · +61.0pp → 88¢
  • 19:00 · +62.5pp → 90¢
  • 17:00 · +62.5pp → 90¢
  • 15:00 · +60.0pp → 87¢
  • 14:00 · +59.5pp → 87¢
  • 10:00 · +19.0pp → 46¢
  • 07:00 · +30.5pp → 57¢
  • 05:00 · +53.5pp → 80¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

7
Same event"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 5th Weekend Box Office
Category · Entertainment

Market Description

This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its fifth weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (May 1 - May 3) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket