Will there be 14 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
Probability
7¢
1h
-0.1pp
24h
-3.5pp
24h Vol
$24.68
Liquidity
$210.39
Probability (last 7 days)
+3.2pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1573.1h
- 10:55SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1573h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.3pp
to 8¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.5pp
to 7¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.4pp
to 7¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.5pp
to 7¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.1pp
to 8¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.6pp
to 7¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.7pp
to 11¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.9pp
to 11¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.9pp
to 11¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.0pp
to 11¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.8pp
to 11¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.2pp
to 11¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.9pp
to 11¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.7pp
to 11¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.3pp
to 11¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.9pp
to 11¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.9pp
to 11¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.9pp
to 10¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.4pp
to 11¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.7pp
to 11¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.4pp
to 10¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.4pp
to 11¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 10¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 11¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 10¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.6pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.8pp
to 29¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.2pp
to 26¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Will there be exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
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Will there be exactly 9 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
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Will there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
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- 5¢-8.5pp
Will there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
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- 15¢-15.3pp
Will there be exactly 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
Weather · Vol $14.68
Market Description
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (9.4¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).