Watchful-Explanation
0xdad7bf909828fdb0f61afa40c0a269bb5daa005a
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
200
Open notional
$2.9K
Total PnL
$-2.1K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?
430 shares @ 59.4¢·now 98.6¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$423.98
$168.47
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
770 shares @ 60.6¢·now 51.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$396.55
$-70.07
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
770 shares @ 26.1¢·now 45.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$350.35
$149.58
- YES
Will voter turnout be between 60% and 70% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?
465 shares @ 23.6¢·now 51.5¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$239.47
$129.67
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
330 shares @ 59.0¢·now 68.5¢·exp Oct 28, 2026$226.05
$31.35
- YES
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?
190 shares @ 51.5¢·now 83.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$158.65
$60.81
- YES
Will voter turnout be between 70% and 80% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?
465 shares @ 18.3¢·now 19.5¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$90.67
$5.38
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
330 shares @ 20.2¢·now 22.5¢·exp Oct 28, 2026$74.25
$7.52
- YES
Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
150 shares @ 37.3¢·now 44.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$66.00
$10.00
- YES
Will voter turnout be less than 50% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?
465 shares @ 12.8¢·now 12.0¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$55.80
$-3.70
Recent activity
- REDEEMNo change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$30.00Jul 31, 05:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?$25.00Jul 30, 14:36 UTC
- REDEEMNo change in Bank of England’s interest rates after July 2026 meeting?$50.00Jul 30, 13:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill three people dissent the July Fed decision?$45.00Jul 29, 22:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.1KJul 29, 20:07 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$1.27Jul 28, 00:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?$440.00Jul 24, 12:44 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$2.73Jul 24, 00:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump attend 1 World Cup match?$10.00Jul 19, 23:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the July Meeting?$375.00Jul 16, 04:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the July interest rate announcement?$20.00Jul 15, 17:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Argentina's monthly inflation in June 2026 be between 1.8% and 2.0%?$10.00Jul 14, 21:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill annual inflation be 3.6% or less in June?$5.00Jul 14, 14:37 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$2.69Jul 12, 00:35 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$2.70Jul 9, 21:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the July decision?$400.00Jul 8, 04:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?$670.00Jul 7, 16:32 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$1.29Jul 7, 00:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision?$110.00Jul 6, 17:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jack Doherty be sentenced to less than 2 years in prison?$0.13Jul 5, 09:08 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $0.47
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 4, 00:05 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 31, 05:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.