Will there be 2–3 North Korea tests in May 2026?
Probability
40¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
+2.5pp
24h Vol
$394.62
Liquidity
$22.0K
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryUnited NationsTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Up 3pp over 24h
Now 40¢; +0.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $22.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryUnited NationsTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 703.7h
Price movement
+2.5pp over the last 24h, now 40¢.
Biggest hourly move: -13.0pp at 1d ago (to 38¢).
Show top 8 of 14 hourly moves
- 16:20 · +5.0pp → 40¢
- 15:00 · +4.5pp → 40¢
- 13:00 · +5.0pp → 40¢
- 11:00 · +9.0pp → 40¢
- 04:00 · -8.5pp → 38¢
- 03:00 · -10.5pp → 38¢
- 02:00 · -11.0pp → 38¢
- 1d ago · -13.0pp → 38¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during May 2026, Pyongyang Time. If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began. Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify. Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify. Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Alerts
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