Will there be at least 1950 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?
Probability
13¢
1h
-4.0pp
24h
-34.0pp
24h Vol
$2.0K
Liquidity
$4.6K
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primarythe CDC case counter by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ETLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (10.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 34pp over 24h
Now 13¢; -4.0pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 10.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primarythe CDC case counter by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ETLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (10.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 703.8h
- 16:13SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
-34.0pp over the last 24h, now 13¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
Alerts
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