UnclassifiedMulti-outcomeExpires Sep 8, 2026
Creator

Will Thursday be the most viewed day of The Five for the week of August 10 - August 16?

Probability

25¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-2.0pp

24h Vol

$323.00

Liquidity

$275.30

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

ILLIQUID

Reason

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Methodology explanation

Review-only opportunity

No paper intent is emitted from the public opportunity row. Paper action appears only after the paper governor evaluates the row.

read_only_explanationpaper-onlysend false

Why this market is in review

signal

Resolution-source risk

5% source confidence on this opportunity row.

Paper-only action

paper-only

Review-only opportunity

read_only_explanation; no live order, no network send, no raw secrets.

Risk / veto readback

review

Resolution review required

The public opportunity row has not passed the paper governor; source wording and settlement state remain review blockers.

Source evidence

source

4 mapped surfaces

283/283 sources runtime-backed; all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false.

Signals

  • Resolution-source riskwatch

    5% source confidence on this opportunity row.

Veto / blockers

  • Resolution review requiredwatch

    The public opportunity row has not passed the paper governor; source wording and settlement state remain review blockers.

  • Confidence below paper gatewatch

    Paper policy needs at least 72% confidence before any paper intent can be proposed.

Costs / sizing

Research score
Composite opportunity score before paper-governor costs and vetoes.
2
Capacity
Estimated research capacity, not an approved size.
$500
Liquidity
Market liquidity visible on the opportunity row.
$275
Explanation packet2026-06-16.1
DecisionSignalsVetoes and capsCostsDriftShadow policyLearning statusAuthority
What can be learned
Source-to-runtime coverage283/283 runtime-backed0 unmapped

all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false; this card cites mapped surfaces only.

P32-Source-to-Runtime-Coverage-Matrix-v1semantic_risk_kernelmethodology_runtime_boundarypromotion_gate+3
live falsesecrets falsetraining falsenot advice

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Sep 8, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
to the day of the week on which the episode of The Five with the highest number of U
Link
nielsen.com
Type
Ambiguous wording
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
25¢
Aug 14, 2026, 20:00 UTCAug 16, 2026, 14:57 UTC
updated 14:57:46 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-08-16T14-57Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 2pp over 24h

    Now 25¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.

  • 03
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $275 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

liquidity sensitive
Trust transition

Liquidity is thin enough that movement can be noisy. Verify source context before reading the move as information.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: https://www.nielsen.com/data-center/top-ten/#television

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Will Thursday be the most viewed day of The Five for the week of August 10 - August 16? State: Illiquid — liquidity sensitive Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Will Thursday be the most viewed day of The Five for the week of August 10 - August 16? State: liquidity sensitive Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

0

Criteria covered

0

Reviewed

0

Awaiting review

0

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Confirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Sep 8, 03:59 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 541.0h

    LOW
  • 14:57Signal

    Resolution risk

    Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.

    LOW

Price movement

-2.0pp over the last 24h, now 25¢.

updated 14:57:46 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 14:57:46 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

5
Same eventMost Viewed Day of The Five This Week (Aug 10-16)
Category · Other

Market Description

Nielsen updates its Linear TV Top 10 Cable Chart on Thursdays, reflecting U.S. TV viewership data from the previous week (Monday-Sunday). This market will resolve according to the day of the week on which the episode of The Five with the highest number of U.S. viewers (Persons 2+ average total viewers, P2+) aired during the Week of August 10 - August 16, as reported on the Linear TV Top 10 Cable Chart. This market will resolve based on the first official estimate reported by Nielsen. Any later revisions or retractions will have no bearing on resolution. If Nielsen reports an entry for The Five without specifying the day of the week on which it aired, that entry will be treated as having aired on Monday. If the specified show does not appear on the final chart for the specified week, this market will resolve to "Monday". If two or more episodes of The Five are reported with the same number of viewers, and that figure is the highest reported for the specified week, this market will resolve to the earliest of those days within the Monday-Sunday week. If the data for the specified week is entirely unreleased by 11:59 PM ET on the second Thursday following the specified week, this market will resolve to "Monday". If the data for the specified week remains partially published (i.e. excluding certain days of the week) by that time, this market will resolve based on the viewership data available at that point. This market will resolve according to Nielsen’s P2+ viewership statistic for the specified week, as reported on the Linear TV Top 10 Cable Chart, regardless of any future changes in methodology. The resolution source for this market will be information from Nielsen, specifically their P2+ viewership statistic as reported on the Linear TV Top 10 Cable Chart (see: https://www.nielsen.com/data-center/top-ten/#television).

Why this category?

confidence: low

Category

Other

Source

Default fallback

Reason

No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Thursday be the most viewed day of The Five for the week of August 10 - August 16?"?

As of Sun, 16 Aug 2026 14:57:46 GMT, YES is priced at 25% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -2.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Sep 8, 2026 (2026-09-08T03:59:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.nielsen.com/data-center/top-ten/#television.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.nielsen.com/data-center/top-ten/#television. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$323.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $323.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $275.30. Spread between best bid and best ask: 3.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

10 wallets
Open on Polymarket