Will Tim Cook buy the Seattle Seahawks?
Probability
8¢
1h
+0.6pp
24h
+4.8pp
24h Vol
$1.2K
Liquidity
$299.41
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Sep 10, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (4.1¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
-1.6pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Up 5pp over 24h
Now 8¢; +0.6pp in the last hour.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 4.1¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Sep 10, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (4.1¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Sep 10, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 2853.3h
Price movement
+4.8pp over the last 24h, now 8¢.
Biggest hourly move: +33.0pp at 10:00 (to 38¢).
Show top 8 of 40 hourly moves
- 22:00 · +31.9pp → 38¢
- 20:00 · +32.6pp → 38¢
- 19:00 · +31.9pp → 38¢
- 17:00 · +32.6pp → 38¢
- 15:00 · +32.8pp → 38¢
- 14:00 · +32.9pp → 38¢
- 10:00 · +33.0pp → 38¢
- May 11, 17:00 UTC · -13.5pp → 5¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to the named individual who is publicly announced as having agreed to purchase the Seattle Seahawks by September 9, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET (the beginning of the 2026 NFL regular season). If no sale is announced before this time, this market will resolve to "Other". For the purposes of this market, an announcement must confirm that the Paul G. Allen estate (also known as Vulcan LLC) has reached a binding agreement to sell a majority interest in the team. Minority sales will not be considered. If a sale is announced to an individual that is not listed, this market will resolve to “Other”. If two or more listed individuals are announced as joint owners or part of the same ownership group, this market will resolve to the individual announced as the controlling owner. If two or more listed individuals are announced as the controlling owners, this market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically. For the purposes of this market, the completion (closing) of the sale is not required. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the National Football League or the Seattle Seahawks. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
nfl Reason
NFL — Sports.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Tim Cook buy the Seattle Seahawks?"?
As of Thu, 14 May 2026 02:43:53 GMT, YES is priced at 8% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +4.8pp in the last 24 hours, +0.6pp in the last hour, and -1.6pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Sep 10, 2026 (2026-09-10T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$1.2K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $1.4K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $299.41. Spread between best bid and best ask: 4.1¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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