PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Dec 31, 2026
Creator

Will Trump announce Stephen Hahn as the next FDA commissioner by December 31?

Probability

13¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-12.0pp

24h Vol

$602.03

Liquidity

$7.7K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Dec 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
13¢
May 13, 2026, 01:00 UTCMay 14, 2026, 22:41 UTC
updated 22:41:09 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-14T22-41Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 12pp over 24h

    Now 13¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $7.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert if probability recovers above 18¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Dec 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 5521.3h

    LOW

Price movement

-12.0pp over the last 24h, now 13¢.

updated 22:41:09 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 22:41:09 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventWho will Trump announce as next FDA commissioner?
Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the first individual Donald Trump announces as his pick to be United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner. An announcement from Donald Trump or the Trump administration stating their intent to nominate a specific individual to be United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurs. Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee or future nominee for FDA Commissioner. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates, will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify. A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. If Donald Trump does not announce his pick for the next United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No announcement by December 31”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump and the Trump Administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: medium

Category

Politics

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

trump

Reason

Question text contains "trump" — matched the Politics keyword rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Trump announce Stephen Hahn as the next FDA commissioner by December 31?"?

As of Thu, 14 May 2026 22:41:09 GMT, YES is priced at 13% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -12.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Dec 31, 2026 (2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$602.03 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $691.92. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $7.7K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

14 wallets
Open on Polymarket