Will Trump endorse Ken Paxton for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?
Probability
36¢
1h
-0.1pp
24h
-1.1pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$53.79
Probability (last 7 days)
-16.6pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 1pp over 24h
Now 36¢; -0.1pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 4616h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 58.7¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 4616.1h
- 15:51SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 4616h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 37¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.2pp
to 36¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.9pp
to 36¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.7pp
to 36¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.1pp
to 37¢
- 07:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.8pp
to 38¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.6pp
to 34¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.6pp
to 36¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.9pp
to 37¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.4pp
to 36¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.4pp
to 36¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.7pp
to 36¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -22.6pp
to 37¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.3pp
to 61¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.1pp
to 34¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.3pp
to 40¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.8pp
to 39¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.2pp
to 61¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.1pp
to 35¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.3pp
to 50¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.6pp
to 41¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.3pp
to 45¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.8pp
to 51¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 38.6pp
to 79¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 29.9pp
to 85¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 38.9pp
to 91¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 36.9pp
to 88¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 30.6pp
to 88¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump announces that he will vote for or endorse the listed candidate in the election named in the title. If Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Nov 4, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (58.7¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).