Caring-Smoking
0x949a19e10abda28e31d9b7a61f955f60bc98575f
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
33
Open notional
$26.45
Total PnL
$-66.30
Realised
$24.75
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 33- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
53 shares @ 18.8¢·now 20.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$10.66
$0.66
- YES
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
19 shares @ 53.0¢·now 32.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.05
$-3.95
- YES
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
68 shares @ 7.3¢·now 4.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.70
$-2.30
- YES
GTA 6 launch postponed again?
24 shares @ 21.0¢·now 11.0¢·exp Nov 19, 2026$2.62
$-2.38
- YES
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?
42 shares @ 12.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.29
$-2.71
- YES
Will GTA 6 cost $100+?
50 shares @ 10.0¢·now 2.4¢·exp Feb 28, 2027$1.18
$-3.83
- YES
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
11 shares @ 9.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.94
$-0.06
- YES
Will Solana reach $170 in May?
2455 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in May?
1214 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
- NO
Will Trump endorse Ken Paxton for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Aug 1, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 31, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 30, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 29, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 27, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 26, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 25, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 24, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 23, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:08 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$1.03Jul 19, 20:31 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
3 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 3
- Avg trade size
- $4.05
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 18, 00:11 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 1, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.