Will Trump say "Ballroom" during events with Brazilian president?

• 01
  Price move

  Down 7pp over 24h

  Now 37¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.

• 02
  Active signal

  Resolution-risk observation firing

  Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

• 03
  Spread cost

  Wide spread — 40.0¢

  Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Donald Trump is scheduled to meet with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on May 7, 2026 (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/4/brazils-lula-to-travel-to-us-to-meet-with-trump-later-this-week). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at events featuring the Brazilian President on May 7, 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. This market is explicitly about events featuring both Donald Trump and Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on May 7, 2026. All such events featuring both on this date count. Speeches, events, or comments which feature one named individual but not the other, will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the events contain a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market. If this visit is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.