Will Trump say "Love Trump" or "Loves Trump" in April?
Probability
18¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-33.5pp
24h Vol
$53.06
Liquidity
$419.73
Probability (last 7 days)
-23.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 34pp over 24h
Now 18¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 106h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 6.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 106.2h
- 13:46SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 106h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.5pp
to 18¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.5pp
to 18¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.0pp
to 18¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.5pp
to 18¢
- 07:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 32¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 46¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.0pp
to 44¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 39¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.5pp
to 45¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.0pp
to 44¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 38¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 41¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 45¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.0pp
to 52¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.0pp
to 52¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.5pp
to 49¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 45¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.0pp
to 46¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 46¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.0pp
to 45¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 37¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 36¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.5pp
to 36¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.5pp
to 40¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.0pp
to 38¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 33¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.0pp
to 41¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 40¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (6.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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