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PoliticsExpires Apr 30, 2026

Will Trump say "Trump National" or "Trump International" in April?

Probability

19¢

1h

-0.5pp

24h

-5.5pp

24h Vol

$10.15

Liquidity

$51.62

Probability (last 7 days)

-9.0pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 14:00Apr 25, 2026, 13:46
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Down 6pp over 24h

    Now 19¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 106h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Wide spread — 13.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 106.2h

    LOW
  • 13:46Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 106h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 13:00Price

    Probability down -12.0pp

    to 19¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability down -11.0pp

    to 20¢

    MEDIUM
  • 10:00Price

    Probability down -7.5pp

    to 24¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability down -8.5pp

    to 24¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability up 10.0pp

    to 23¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability up 9.0pp

    to 23¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability up 9.0pp

    to 23¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability up 9.0pp

    to 24¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability up 10.5pp

    to 26¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability up 11.0pp

    to 27¢

    MEDIUM
  • 22:00Price

    Probability up 9.5pp

    to 27¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability up 13.0pp

    to 26¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability up 11.5pp

    to 26¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability up 10.0pp

    to 25¢

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Price

    Probability up 9.5pp

    to 26¢

    MEDIUM
  • 14:00Price

    Probability up 6.5pp

    to 25¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.5pp

    to 25¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.0pp

    to 25¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 15.0pp

    to 36¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 7.5pp

    to 30¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 10.0pp

    to 32¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 19.0pp

    to 42¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 18.0pp

    to 42¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 7.5pp

    to 33¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 6.5pp

    to 42¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -12.0pp

    to 34¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -14.5pp

    to 34¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -10.0pp

    to 33¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
Apr 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Binary
  • No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
  • Wide spread (13.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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