Will Trump say "Trump University" in April?
Probability
3¢
1h
-0.1pp
24h
+0.1pp
24h Vol
$166.67
Liquidity
$1.6K
Probability (last 7 days)
-1.8pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 100h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $1.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 100.3h
- 19:41SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 100h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+0.2pp over the last 24h, now 3¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not stated explicitly — read the full market rules below.
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.