Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by June 30, 2026?
Probability
13¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-1.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$8.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
+3.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 2pp over 24h
Now 13¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5982h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $8.4k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5982.2h
- 17:49SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 5982h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-1.5pp over the last 24h, now 13¢.
Biggest hourly move: +5.0pp at 1d ago (to 14¢).
Show all 20 hour-by-hour ticks
- 17:00 · +3.0pp → 12¢
- 15:00 · +3.5pp → 13¢
- 14:00 · +3.5pp → 13¢
- 12:00 · +3.5pp → 13¢
- 11:00 · +3.5pp → 13¢
- 09:00 · +4.5pp → 14¢
- 08:00 · +4.0pp → 13¢
- 06:00 · +4.5pp → 14¢
- 05:00 · +4.5pp → 14¢
- 03:00 · +4.5pp → 14¢
- 02:00 · +4.0pp → 13¢
- 00:00 · +4.5pp → 14¢
- 23:00 · +4.0pp → 14¢
- 21:00 · +4.0pp → 14¢
- 20:00 · +4.5pp → 14¢
- 18:00 · +4.5pp → 14¢
- 1d ago · +5.0pp → 14¢
- 1d ago · +4.5pp → 14¢
- 1d ago · +4.0pp → 13¢
- 1d ago · +5.0pp → 14¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Jerome Powell as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify. If Jerome Powell resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No". Attempts to remove Powell from his role as chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, which do not include removing Powell as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, will not alone qualify. The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Federal ReserveOfficial government sourceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
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