Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by December 31, 2026?

1. 1

   Down 11pp over 24h

   Now 20¢; +0.5pp in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 5986h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Thin liquidity

   Only $4.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Jerome Powell as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify. If Jerome Powell resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No". Attempts to remove Powell from his role as chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, which do not include removing Powell as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, will not alone qualify. The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.