Will Trump visit China by May 15?

1. 1

   Heavy volume on this book — 2.5× turnover

   $37.3k traded against $15.2k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

3. 3

   Thin liquidity

   Only $15.2k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

4. 4

   Past expiry — awaiting resolution

   Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.

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If U.S. President Donald Trump visits China by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.