GeopoliticsExpires Mar 31, 2026

Will Trump visit China by May 31?

Probability

74¢

1h

-0.5pp

24h

+1.0pp

24h Vol

$26.0K

Liquidity

$28.2K

Probability (last 7 days)

-13.0pp 7d
Apr 19, 2026, 01:00Apr 25, 2026, 21:07
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 1

    Up 1pp over 24h

    Now 74¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.

  • 2

    Past expiry — awaiting resolution

    Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 74¢.

Biggest hourly move: -12.5pp at 2d ago (to 76¢).

Show all 30 hour-by-hour ticks
  • 19:00 · -4.0pp → 72¢
  • 17:00 · -7.5pp → 68¢
  • 15:00 · -3.0pp → 73¢
  • 14:00 · -3.0pp → 73¢
  • 12:00 · -5.5pp → 72¢
  • 11:00 · -6.0pp → 72¢
  • 09:00 · -7.0pp → 71¢
  • 08:00 · -7.5pp → 70¢
  • 06:00 · -4.0pp → 74¢
  • 05:00 · -3.5pp → 74¢
  • 00:00 · +3.0pp → 73¢
  • 22:00 · +3.5pp → 74¢
  • 1d ago · -4.0pp → 71¢
  • 1d ago · -5.0pp → 70¢
  • 1d ago · -5.0pp → 70¢
  • 1d ago · -7.0pp → 71¢
  • 1d ago · -7.0pp → 71¢
  • 1d ago · -7.0pp → 71¢
  • 1d ago · -6.5pp → 72¢
  • 2d ago · -7.5pp → 72¢
  • 2d ago · -5.5pp → 72¢
  • 2d ago · -9.0pp → 72¢
  • 2d ago · -9.0pp → 71¢
  • 2d ago · -5.0pp → 73¢
  • 2d ago · -12.5pp → 71¢
  • 2d ago · -10.5pp → 73¢
  • 2d ago · -8.5pp → 75¢
  • 2d ago · -9.0pp → 77¢
  • 2d ago · -11.5pp → 76¢
  • 2d ago · -12.5pp → 76¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

12
Same eventWill Trump visit China by...?
Category · Geopolitics

Market Description

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits China by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Mar 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
twitter.com
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
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