Will Trump’s approval rating fall to 37.5% in April?
Probability
4¢
1h
+0.1pp
24h
-0.3pp
24h Vol
$90.00
Liquidity
$4.7K
Probability (last 7 days)
-3.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 1
Thin liquidity
Only $4.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 99.1h
Price movement
-0.3pp over the last 24h, now 4¢.
Biggest hourly move: -4.0pp at 4d ago (to 3¢).
Show all 13 hour-by-hour ticks
- 3d ago · -3.4pp → 4¢
- 3d ago · -3.4pp → 4¢
- 3d ago · -3.7pp → 3¢
- 3d ago · -3.7pp → 3¢
- 3d ago · -3.7pp → 3¢
- 3d ago · -3.7pp → 3¢
- 4d ago · -4.0pp → 3¢
- 4d ago · -3.9pp → 3¢
- 4d ago · -3.8pp → 3¢
- 4d ago · -3.6pp → 3¢
- 4d ago · -3.6pp → 3¢
- 4d ago · -3.9pp → 3¢
- 4d ago · -3.9pp → 3¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between April 8 and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. If the approval rating for April 30 is not published by May 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimarySilver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between April 8 and April 30, 2026LinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.