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PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Apr 12, 2026

Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%?

Probability

1h

+0.1pp

24h

+0.2pp

24h Vol

$730.64

Liquidity

$17.1K

Probability (last 7 days)

+1.4pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 07:00Apr 25, 2026, 06:45
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

 

Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 06:45Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

    LOW
  • 17:00Price

    Probability down -3.3pp

    to 2¢

    MEDIUM
  • 14:00Price

    Probability down -3.4pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
  • 13:00Price

    Probability down -3.2pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability down -3.3pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.9pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.9pp

    to 2¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 5¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.6pp

    to 5¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 5¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 5¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.6pp

    to 6¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 6¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage (% Total Asistentes) in the first round presidential elections, calculated by dividing attendees (Asistentes) by eligible voters (Electores hábiles). This market will resolve solely based on turnout for the first-round Presidential (Presidencial) election; turnout for Congress members (Congresistas), the Senate (Senado), or the Andean Parliament (Parlamento Andino) will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Apr 12, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
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