Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%?
Probability
4¢
1h
+0.1pp
24h
+0.2pp
24h Vol
$730.64
Liquidity
$17.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
+1.4pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 06:45SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.3pp
to 2¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.4pp
to 3¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.2pp
to 3¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.3pp
to 3¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.9pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.9pp
to 2¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 5¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.6pp
to 5¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 5¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 5¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.6pp
to 6¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 6¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage (% Total Asistentes) in the first round presidential elections, calculated by dividing attendees (Asistentes) by eligible voters (Electores hábiles). This market will resolve solely based on turnout for the first-round Presidential (Presidencial) election; turnout for Congress members (Congresistas), the Senate (Senado), or the Andean Parliament (Parlamento Andino) will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 12, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
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