Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 1,500,000 and 1,800,000 voters?
Probability
11¢
1h
-0.1pp
24h
+0.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$11.2K
Probability (last 7 days)
-25.4pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 729h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 12.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 728.7h
- 15:15SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 729h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.1pp
to 12¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.7pp
to 11¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.3pp
to 11¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.8pp
to 11¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 11¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.4pp
to 11¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.3pp
to 11¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 12¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.3pp
to 11¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.4pp
to 11¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.2pp
to 11¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.8pp
to 11¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.7pp
to 11¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.3pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.3pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.3pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.2pp
to 13¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.3pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.3pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.4pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.8pp
to 12¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.5pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.9pp
to 12¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.8pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.1pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.3pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.2pp
to 11¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 26, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (12.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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