Will two people dissent the April Fed decision?
Probability
12¢
1h
+5.5pp
24h
-3.0pp
24h Vol
$1.2K
Liquidity
$3.8K
Probability (last 7 days)
-7.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 96.5h
- 23:30SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 96h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 9¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 8¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.0pp
to 8¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 16¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 15¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 18¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 14¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 17¢
- 07:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 22¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 15¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 16¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 18¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 16¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 19¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 20¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 17¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 19¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for April 28-29, 2026. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on April 29, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET. This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the next Federal Reserve Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 29, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Federal Open Market CommitteeOfficial government sourceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (8.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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