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GeopoliticsExpires May 22, 2026

Will Ultra Prime qualify for EWC 2026?

Probability

1h

+1.2pp

24h

-29.6pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$84.37

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.4pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 18:00Apr 25, 2026, 16:34
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Down 30pp over 24h

    Now 2¢; +1.2pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 631h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Thin liquidity

    Only $84 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 631.4h

    LOW
  • 16:34Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 631h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 12:00Price

    Probability up 4.9pp

    to 7¢

    MEDIUM
  • 11:00Price

    Probability up 11.3pp

    to 12¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability up 9.4pp

    to 22¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability up 7.2pp

    to 22¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability up 22.4pp

    to 23¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability up 22.5pp

    to 24¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability up 24.6pp

    to 25¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability up 24.6pp

    to 26¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability up 26.7pp

    to 27¢

    MEDIUM
  • 23:00Price

    Probability up 26.5pp

    to 28¢

    MEDIUM
  • 21:00Price

    Probability up 26.5pp

    to 29¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability up 28.4pp

    to 29¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability up 28.3pp

    to 31¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability up 26.3pp

    to 31¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 23.2pp

    to 32¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 32.5pp

    to 33¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.8pp

    to 7¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 16.4pp

    to 19¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 13.0pp

    to 26¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 30.1pp

    to 30¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.9pp

    to 2¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -18.6pp

    to 2¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -18.1pp

    to 13¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -16.2pp

    to 15¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 6.3pp

    to 7¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

The Esports World Cup 2026 China Qualifier is scheduled to take place from March 27 to May 22, 2026. This market will resolve according to which teams qualify for the EWC 2026 Main Event through the China Qualifier. If the listed team officially qualifies as one of the teams advancing from the China Qualifier to the EWC 2026 Main Event, the market will resolve to "Yes." Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." Ties in standings will be broken according to the official Esports World Cup Foundation rules. If the Esports World Cup 2026 is canceled, postponed indefinitely, or if the official list of EWC 2026 participants is not published by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM, ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source will be official information from the Esports World Cup (https://esportsworldcup.com/). However, a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., Liquipedia at https://liquipedia.net/leagueoflegends/Esports_World_Cup/2026/China) may also be used.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 22, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).