Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?
Probability
21¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$1.1K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jul 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Probability (last 7 days)
-1.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $1.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jul 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jul 30, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 1742.3h
Price movement
-0.5pp over the last 24h, now 21¢.
Biggest hourly move: -5.0pp at May 14, 16:00 UTC (to 18¢).
Show top 8 of 10 hourly moves
- 09:00 · +3.5pp → 21¢
- May 17, 05:00 UTC · +3.5pp → 22¢
- May 16, 20:00 UTC · +3.0pp → 22¢
- May 15, 21:00 UTC · -4.0pp → 18¢
- May 15, 08:00 UTC · -3.0pp → 21¢
- May 14, 16:00 UTC · -5.0pp → 18¢
- May 14, 11:00 UTC · -3.5pp → 20¢
- May 14, 07:00 UTC · -4.0pp → 19¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution. If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
gdpReason
Question text contains "gdp" — matched the Macro keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 09:43:20 GMT, YES is priced at 21% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -1.5pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jul 30, 2026 (2026-07-30T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $420.36. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.1K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 4.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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