Brown-Jaw
0x0be4c9e1beb1289d3602e4553424fcb3dfa2b548
Wallet digest
Activity score
82/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
66
Open notional
$2.2K
Total PnL
$-2.2K
Realised
$-61.00
Win rate
68%
19 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 66- YES
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
3000 shares @ 12.4¢·now 12.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$360.00
$-11.73
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
400 shares @ 85.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$342.00
$2.00
- YES
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
3000 shares @ 12.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$285.00
$-75.00
- NO
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
484 shares @ 41.0¢·now 51.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$249.25
$50.98
- NO
Will Matt Claman advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?
150 shares @ 76.0¢·now 98.8¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$148.13
$34.13
- YES
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
150 shares @ 59.0¢·now 80.5¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$120.75
$32.25
- YES
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
500 shares @ 22.2¢·now 20.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$102.50
$-8.52
- NO
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?
94 shares @ 88.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$93.95
$10.57
- YES
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
150 shares @ 65.0¢·now 57.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$86.25
$-11.25
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
400 shares @ 33.8¢·now 19.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$77.40
$-57.60
Recent activity
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?$145.00Jul 29, 10:37 UTC
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?$765.70Jul 29, 10:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$5.00Jul 29, 10:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$38.60Jul 29, 10:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$33.23Jul 29, 10:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$58.00Jul 29, 10:21 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?$50.00Jul 28, 18:33 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 28, 00:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 86m and 92m?$50.00Jul 27, 23:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 27, 00:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$34.17Jul 26, 06:29 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 26, 00:13 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$1.64Jul 26, 00:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$13.46Jul 25, 15:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?$57.03Jul 25, 15:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?$37.81Jul 25, 15:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?$5.48Jul 25, 15:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?$16.51Jul 25, 14:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?$2.85Jul 25, 14:52 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
37/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
68% win rate over 19 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
19 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $63.84
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 24, 15:51 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 10:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 19 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.