Will Vinson Watkins finish first in the first round of the 2026 Georgia Senate Republican primary election?
Probability
25¢
1h
-1.9pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$170.93
Liquidity
$245.40
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Expiry is in the past but upstream has not confirmed a resolution.
Expiry passed and the market has not been officially resolved. Do not treat the price as the outcome.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 19, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires May 19, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (49.1¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 49.1¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 19, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires May 19, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (49.1¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 20:39SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 00:00Scheduled resolutionHIGH
Expiry passed 21h ago; not yet resolved upstream
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 25¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
14- 14¢-24.0
Will Derek Dooley finish first in the first round of the 2026 Georgia Senate Republican primary election?
Politics · Vol $105.85
- 48¢+9.5
Will Earl Carter finish first in the first round of the 2026 Georgia Senate Republican primary election?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 1¢-42.5
Will Rick Temple finish first in the first round of the 2026 Georgia Senate Republican primary election?
Politics · Vol $175.85
- 25¢-24.0
Will Christina Loren Clement finish first in the first round of the 2026 Georgia Senate Republican primary election?
Politics · Vol $161.46
- 50¢0.0
Will Candidate A finish first in the first round of the 2026 Georgia Senate Republican primary election?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0
Will Candidate C finish first in the first round of the 2026 Georgia Senate Republican primary election?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 50¢-0.5
Will Mike Collins finish first in the first round of the 2026 Georgia Senate Republican primary election?
Politics · Vol $21.58
- 4¢-39.4
Will Christoph La'Flare Chapman finish first in the first round of the 2026 Georgia Senate Republican primary election?
Politics · Vol $169.08
- 1¢0.0
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $853.3K
- 40¢+3.0
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
Politics · Vol $475.9K
- 0¢+0.3
Will Lars Boje Mathiesen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?
Politics · Vol $443.0K
- 1¢0.0
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $279.3K
- 2¢+0.6
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $275.6K
- 1¢+0.1
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $271.2K
Market Description
The Georgia Republican Senate primary is currently scheduled to be held on May 19, 2026, with a runoff on June 16, 2026, if no candidate wins a majority in the primary. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. If no 2026 Georgia Senate Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Georgia Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
electionReason
Question text contains the high-signal keyword "election" — matched the Politics rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Vinson Watkins finish first in the first round of the 2026 Georgia Senate Republican primary election?"?
As of Tue, 19 May 2026 20:39:01 GMT, YES is priced at 25% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, -1.9pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 19, 2026 (2026-05-19T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$170.93 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $170.93. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $245.40. Spread between best bid and best ask: 49.1¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.