Will voter turnout be between 50% and 53% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?
Probability
34¢
1h
+4.0pp
24h
+5.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$4.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 6pp over 24h
Now 34¢; +4.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 3532h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 56.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 3532.1h
- 19:53SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 3532h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+10.0pp over the last 24h, now 36¢.
Biggest hourly move: -22.5pp at 1d ago (to 26¢).
Show all 18 hour-by-hour ticks
- 19:53 · +6.5pp → 36¢
- 18:00 · +6.0pp → 35¢
- 16:00 · +5.0pp → 34¢
- 13:00 · +3.5pp → 32¢
- 11:00 · +3.5pp → 32¢
- 09:00 · +3.0pp → 32¢
- 02:00 · -4.0pp → 31¢
- 00:00 · -7.0pp → 28¢
- 23:00 · -7.5pp → 28¢
- 21:00 · -18.0pp → 24¢
- 20:00 · -16.0pp → 26¢
- 1d ago · -8.0pp → 34¢
- 1d ago · -11.0pp → 31¢
- 1d ago · -9.0pp → 33¢
- 1d ago · -8.5pp → 34¢
- 1d ago · -16.0pp → 30¢
- 1d ago · -12.5pp → 34¢
- 1d ago · -22.5pp → 26¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the 2026 Russia Parliamentary election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used if official results are not available.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Sep 20, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Russian governmentOfficial government sourceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (56.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
Top Holders
No holder data from the Data API.