SportsMulti-outcomeExpires May 31, 2026

Will1. FC Heidenheim place 16th for the 2025-26 Bundesliga season?

Probability

44¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-5.5pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$10.68

Probability (last 7 days)

-4.0pp 7d
Apr 19, 2026, 05:00Apr 26, 2026, 04:53
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 1

    Down 6pp over 24h

    Now 44¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 835h with open resolution ambiguity.

  • 3

    Wide spread — 85.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 835.1h

    LOW
  • 04:53Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 835h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

-4.0pp over the last 24h, now 44¢.

Biggest hourly move: -5.0pp at 03:00 (to 44¢).

Show 7 hourly moves
  • 03:00 · -5.0pp → 44¢
  • 00:00 · -3.5pp → 44¢
  • 22:00 · -3.5pp → 44¢
  • 21:00 · -3.5pp → 44¢
  • 20:00 · -4.0pp → 44¢
  • 19:00 · -3.5pp → 44¢
  • 2d ago · -4.0pp → 44¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventBundesliga: 16th Place (Relegation Survivor)
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team finishes 16th in the 2025-26 Bundesliga. Otherwise, the associated market will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to finish 16th in the 2025-26 Bundesliga (e.g. they mathematically cannot finish in 16th), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2025-2026 Bundesliga season is cancelled, postponed after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no 16th place team declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundesliga; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (85.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

4 wallets
Open on Polymarket