Set 1 Winner: Arango vs Kasatkina
Probability
37¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-13.5pp
24h Vol
$10.00
Liquidity
$1.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Down 14pp over 24h
Now 37¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $1.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability recovers above 42¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 177.1h
Price movement
-13.5pp over the last 24h, now 37¢.
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market refers to the tennis match between Emiliana Arango and Daria Kasatkina in the La Bisbal, originally scheduled for April 28, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to “Arango” if Emiliana Arango wins the first set. It will resolve to “Kasatkina” if Daria Kasatkina wins the first set. If the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official WTA Challenger match statistics.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 5, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.