Soft-Tracking
0x002db80ba5fb3eb9fff6b1549ba2a58a3d0d1efe
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
72
Open notional
$21.02
Total PnL
$-270.03
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 72- NO
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $650B by December 31?
10 shares @ 72.0¢·now 75.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$7.81
$0.31
- NO
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
4 shares @ 88.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$3.46
$-0.06
- NO
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?
2 shares @ 87.0¢·now 97.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.95
$0.21
- YES
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
2 shares @ 85.0¢·now 97.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$1.94
$0.24
- NO
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
2 shares @ 88.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.83
$0.07
- NO
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
2 shares @ 66.0¢·now 73.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$1.68
$0.17
- NO
X banned in any European country by December 31?
2 shares @ 68.0¢·now 83.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.50
$0.27
- YES
Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027?
2 shares @ 58.0¢·now 22.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.44
$-0.72
- NO
Will Ty Masterson win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election?
2 shares @ 57.0¢·now 18.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$0.41
$-0.89
- YES
Will Espanyol qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League?
25 shares @ 69.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$0.00
$-17.30
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?$2.00Jul 27, 21:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill Leavitt say "Pool" during the next White House Press Briefing?$6.02Jul 16, 20:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Stephen Miller leave the Trump administration before 2027?$9.81Jul 11, 10:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Brittany Mahomes attend Taylor Swift's wedding?$3.56Jul 11, 10:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the UK’s 2026 inflation be at least 4.5%?$4.17Jul 11, 10:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Oliver Adams Larkin be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23?$7.59Jul 11, 10:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democratic Party win the OH-10 House seat?$4.21Jul 11, 10:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Monero hit $1000 in 2026?$4.26Jul 11, 10:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democratic Party win the CA-21 House seat?$4.33Jul 11, 10:36 UTC
- TRADESELLFed rate hike in 2026?$2.24Jul 11, 10:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?$9.30Jul 11, 10:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?$3.66Jul 11, 10:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.9T and 1.2T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?$10.08Jul 11, 10:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Uhlsport be the brand of gloves worn by the Golden Glove winner at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$4.86Jul 11, 10:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democratic Party win the NM-02 House seat?$10.65Jul 11, 10:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$4.17Jul 11, 10:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democratic Party win the AZ-04 House seat?$4.85Jul 11, 10:33 UTC
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?$4.35Jul 11, 10:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Indiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?$10.13Jul 11, 10:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?$1.28Jul 11, 10:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $5.55
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 23, 00:17 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 27, 21:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.