Knotty-Hatchet
0x16b48a8e75ff7c514b8d51bc4292d7eb3d71168f
Wallet digest
Activity score
87/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
80
Open notional
$420.69
Total PnL
$-73.17
Realised
$107.42
Win rate
63%
35 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 80- NO
Relay FDV above $600M one day after launch?
42 shares @ 58.1¢·now 78.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$32.97
$8.56
- NO
Cambria FDV above $40M one day after launch?
43 shares @ 69.0¢·now 60.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$25.80
$-3.87
- NO
Aligned FDV above $1B one day after launch?
26 shares @ 92.7¢·now 95.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$24.56
$0.59
- YES
Hurupay FDV above $20M one day after launch?
95 shares @ 13.3¢·now 24.8¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$23.51
$10.91
- YES
Unit FDV above $800M one day after launch?
125 shares @ 23.0¢·now 16.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$20.64
$-8.19
- NO
Ledger IPO closing market cap above $2B?
22 shares @ 39.8¢·now 71.1¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$15.67
$6.91
- YES
Will Betmoar launch a token by December 31, 2027?
25 shares @ 54.0¢·now 60.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$15.14
$1.63
- NO
Will USD/KRW hit 1700 (High) in 2026?
16 shares @ 82.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$14.80
$1.68
- NO
Will Betmoar launch a token by March 31, 2027?
18 shares @ 36.6¢·now 72.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$13.05
$6.46
- NO
Will USD/KRW hit 1300 (Low) in 2026?
15 shares @ 90.0¢·now 81.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.15
$-1.35
Recent activity
- TRADESELLUnit FDV above $1B one day after launch?$84.98Jul 28, 11:04 UTC
- REWARD$0.11Jul 18, 00:15 UTC
- TRADESELLGRVT FDV above $800M one day after launch?$5.82Jul 17, 04:12 UTC
- TRADESELLGRVT FDV above $800M one day after launch?$6.40Jul 16, 17:36 UTC
- TRADESELLGRVT FDV above $800M one day after launch?$2.56Jul 16, 14:00 UTC
- REWARD$1.08Jul 15, 00:00 UTC
- REWARD$1.21Jul 14, 00:00 UTC
- REWARD$1.50Jul 13, 00:00 UTC
- REWARD$1.04Jul 12, 00:00 UTC
- REWARD$1.09Jul 11, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLGRVT FDV above $800M one day after launch?$10.87Jul 10, 15:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Exponent launch a token by September 30, 2026?$7.94Jul 10, 03:08 UTC
- TRADESELLConsensys IPO closing market cap above $2B?$8.10Jul 10, 03:08 UTC
- TRADESELLCambria FDV above $30M one day after launch?$9.63Jul 10, 03:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Extended launch a token by September 30 2026?$12.61Jul 10, 03:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $9B in 2026?$13.94Jul 10, 03:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Extended launch a token by December 31 2026?$28.21Jul 10, 02:58 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereal FDV above $500M one day after launch?$14.03Jul 6, 13:02 UTC
- TRADESELLKraken IPO closing market cap above $26B?$1.85Jul 6, 13:02 UTC
- TRADESELLRelay FDV above $700M one day after launch?$25.98Jul 6, 13:02 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
78/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
63% win rate over 35 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
35 closed markets, 63% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $25.03
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 4, 13:01 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 11:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 35 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.