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OtherExpires Jan 1, 2028

Cambria FDV above $40M one day after launch?

Probability

47¢

1h

-1.5pp

24h

-3.5pp

24h Vol

$30.31

Liquidity

$2.9K

Probability (last 7 days)

+20.5pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 15:00Apr 25, 2026, 12:00
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Down 4pp over 24h

    Now 47¢; -1.5pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 14776h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Wide spread — 14.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 14776.1h

    LOW
  • 12:53Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 14776h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 12:00Price

    Probability up 26.5pp

    to 49¢

    MEDIUM
  • 11:00Price

    Probability up 25.5pp

    to 48¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability up 25.0pp

    to 47¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability up 25.0pp

    to 48¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability up 23.0pp

    to 47¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability up 23.0pp

    to 48¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability up 26.5pp

    to 53¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability up 26.5pp

    to 52¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability up 17.0pp

    to 49¢

    MEDIUM
  • 23:00Price

    Probability up 25.0pp

    to 51¢

    MEDIUM
  • 21:00Price

    Probability up 26.0pp

    to 48¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability up 25.5pp

    to 51¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability up 19.0pp

    to 47¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability up 21.5pp

    to 48¢

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Price

    Probability up 14.5pp

    to 50¢

    MEDIUM
  • 14:00Price

    Probability up 18.0pp

    to 51¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 25.5pp

    to 49¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 21.5pp

    to 48¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 15.5pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 19.5pp

    to 45¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 17.5pp

    to 45¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 9.0pp

    to 40¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 15.0pp

    to 42¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 13.0pp

    to 42¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 14.5pp

    to 40¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 13.5pp

    to 39¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 9.5pp

    to 36¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -8.5pp

    to 25¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Cambria's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Cambria (https://x.com/playcambria) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
Jan 1, 2028
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Binary
  • No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
  • Wide spread (14.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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