Cambria FDV above $40M one day after launch?
Probability
47¢
1h
-1.5pp
24h
-3.5pp
24h Vol
$30.31
Liquidity
$2.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
+20.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 4pp over 24h
Now 47¢; -1.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 14776h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 14.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 14776.1h
- 12:53SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 14776h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 26.5pp
to 49¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 25.5pp
to 48¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 25.0pp
to 47¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 25.0pp
to 48¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 23.0pp
to 47¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 23.0pp
to 48¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 26.5pp
to 53¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 26.5pp
to 52¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.0pp
to 49¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 25.0pp
to 51¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 26.0pp
to 48¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 25.5pp
to 51¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.0pp
to 47¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.5pp
to 48¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.5pp
to 50¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.0pp
to 51¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 25.5pp
to 49¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.5pp
to 48¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.5pp
to 44¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.5pp
to 45¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.5pp
to 45¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 40¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.0pp
to 42¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.0pp
to 42¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.5pp
to 40¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.5pp
to 39¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 36¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 25¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Cambria's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Cambria (https://x.com/playcambria) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2028
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (14.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).