Excitable-Bayou
0x198ce125c4f6bf60c3d1e34d6a54c98b54d486f9
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
20
Open notional
$15.72
Total PnL
$-7.90
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 20- YES
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026?
4 shares @ 70.0¢·now 63.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.72
$-0.28
- NO
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
2 shares @ 84.5¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.07
$0.07
- YES
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit?
1 shares @ 70.0¢·now 91.8¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$1.31
$0.31
- YES
Will Trump visit China by May 31?
1 shares @ 79.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$1.27
$0.27
- NO
Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by May 31?
1 shares @ 90.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$1.11
$0.11
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
1 shares @ 84.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.08
$0.08
- YES
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?
6 shares @ 17.2¢·now 18.1¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$1.05
$0.05
- YES
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?
1 shares @ 95.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$1.05
$0.05
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
1 shares @ 90.3¢·now 93.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.04
$0.04
- NO
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
1 shares @ 91.4¢·now 93.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.02
$0.02
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil settle at $90–$100 on April 8?$1.18May 1, 11:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump attend UFC 327?$1.47May 1, 11:49 UTC
- REDEEMUS forces enter Iran by April 30?$1.59May 1, 11:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Tesla (TSLA) close above $380 end of April?$1.67May 1, 11:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by May 31?$1.00Apr 8, 07:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil settle at $90–$100 on April 8?$1.00Apr 8, 07:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil settle at $80–$90 on April 8?$1.00Apr 8, 07:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump attend NATO Summit?$1.00Apr 8, 07:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump attend UFC 327?$1.00Apr 8, 07:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYNothing Ever Happens: April$1.00Apr 8, 07:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?$1.08Apr 8, 07:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q1 2026$1.39Apr 8, 07:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?$1.59Apr 8, 07:34 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran ceasefire by June 30?$1.61Apr 8, 07:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026?$3.00Apr 1, 12:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$1.00Apr 1, 12:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?$1.00Apr 1, 11:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?$1.00Apr 1, 11:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?$1.00Apr 1, 11:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15% on March 31?$1.03Apr 1, 11:48 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $1.06
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 29, 05:21 UTC
- Last active
- May 1, 11:49 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.