Negligible-Curtain
0x1a762eb456eb061ab1d28b6c8a19fb4e3b38b26b
Wallet digest
Activity score
43/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
171
Open notional
$10.28
Total PnL
$-515.82
Realised
$-15.02
Win rate
5%
120 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 171- NO
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?
17 shares @ 6.4¢·now 12.6¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$2.15
$1.05
- YES
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?
9 shares @ 14.1¢·now 15.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.38
$0.08
- YES
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
23 shares @ 4.4¢·now 5.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.19
$0.19
- NO
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
1 shares @ 68.0¢·now 72.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.07
$0.07
- NO
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
1 shares @ 89.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.04
$0.04
- YES
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
42 shares @ 2.4¢·now 2.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.02
$0.02
- YES
Will Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?
17 shares @ 6.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Jan 25, 2027$0.92
$-0.08
- YES
Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
10 shares @ 11.0¢·now 7.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.72
$-0.38
- YES
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship?
67 shares @ 1.5¢·now 1.1¢·exp Mar 31, 2027$0.70
$-0.30
- YES
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?
13 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.09
$-0.11
Recent activity
- REDEEM Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$0.29Jul 3, 07:11 UTC
- REDEEMParma Calcio 1913 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 2.5$0.45Jul 3, 07:11 UTC
- REDEEMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?$0.33Jul 3, 07:11 UTC
- TRADESELLGPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?$1.00Jul 1, 03:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31?$1.01Jul 1, 03:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 1, 00:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Drake be the top artist for 2026?$4.57Jun 30, 12:45 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump meets with Putin by December 31?$2.95Jun 30, 12:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kamala Harris announce a 2028 run for President by June 30?$1.02Jun 30, 12:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US announce a blockade on Iran by June 30?$1.02Jun 30, 12:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$1.02Jun 30, 12:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?$1.13Jun 30, 12:23 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?$1.08Jun 30, 12:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump praise Allah again by June 30?$1.44Jun 30, 12:23 UTC
- TRADESELLUS recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?$1.34Jun 30, 12:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026?$1.27Jun 30, 12:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?$2.00Jun 30, 12:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$1.91Jun 30, 12:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$2.67Jun 30, 12:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$2.80Jun 30, 12:23 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
58/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
5% win rate over 120 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 30/100.
120 closed markets, 5% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $3.08
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 30, 12:21 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 3, 07:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 120 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.