0x1ba4ddd6ab3caee33f5faac74f7dccecb86f2e02
0x1ba4ddd6ab3caee33f5faac74f7dccecb86f2e02
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
16
Open notional
$22.96
Total PnL
$-1.68
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- NO
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?
2 shares @ 90.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.86
$-0.05
- NO
US congress stock trading ban before 2027?
2 shares @ 90.0¢·now 83.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.77
$-0.15
- NO
Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?
3 shares @ 67.0¢·now 63.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.69
$-0.09
- NO
Will Kansas use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
2 shares @ 93.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.47
$-0.01
- YES
Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
2 shares @ 90.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.47
$-0.01
- NO
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms?
2 shares @ 97.7¢·now 97.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.46
$-0.01
- NO
Will Washington use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
2 shares @ 94.0¢·now 93.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.46
$-0.02
- YES
Will Texas use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
2 shares @ 94.0¢·now 93.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.46
$-0.02
- YES
Will Florida use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
2 shares @ 90.0¢·now 87.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.43
$-0.05
- YES
Will Alabama use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
2 shares @ 91.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.42
$-0.06
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Virginia use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?$1.54Jun 18, 20:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Texas use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?$1.48Jun 18, 20:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Washington use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?$1.48Jun 18, 20:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kansas use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?$1.48Jun 18, 20:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Missouri use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?$1.53Jun 18, 20:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Indiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?$1.53Jun 18, 20:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYAlexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?$1.92Jun 18, 20:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYNew Virginia congressional map used in the midterms?$1.48Jun 18, 20:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Minnesota use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?$1.36Jun 18, 20:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Maryland use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?$1.53Jun 18, 20:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill North Carolina use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?$1.53Jun 18, 20:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?$1.48Jun 18, 20:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alabama use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?$1.48Jun 18, 20:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Florida use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?$1.48Jun 18, 20:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYSupreme Court vacancy in 2026?$1.81Jun 18, 20:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS congress stock trading ban before 2027?$1.92Jun 18, 20:53 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
16 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 16
- Avg trade size
- $1.56
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 18, 20:53 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 18, 20:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.