Medium-Session
0x1bdf96c53e8922cf09d310b146f3972bd3df1b74
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
30
Open notional
$9.6K
Total PnL
$-142.68
Realised
$65.11
Win rate
83%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 30- NO
Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?
3367 shares @ 81.6¢·now 92.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.1K
$362.33
- NO
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?
1598 shares @ 71.2¢·now 68.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.1K
$-43.89
- NO
NATO dissolves before 2027?
1000 shares @ 90.0¢·now 97.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$973.50
$73.50
- NO
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?
1000 shares @ 92.5¢·now 96.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$963.50
$38.51
- NO
Will Venezuela become 51st state?
910 shares @ 96.3¢·now 96.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$881.97
$5.46
- NO
Will Trump's approval rating hit 30% in 2026?
621 shares @ 89.0¢·now 95.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$590.00
$37.16
- NO
Will Trump's approval rating hit 44% in 2026?
525 shares @ 59.1¢·now 93.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$492.52
$182.59
- NO
Will Trump's approval rating hit 25% in 2026?
432 shares @ 93.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$412.86
$10.81
- NO
AI bubble burst in 2026?
500 shares @ 80.0¢·now 80.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$404.00
$4.00
- NO
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by December 31?
282 shares @ 66.3¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$266.15
$79.33
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.06Jul 14, 00:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?$105.68Jul 13, 19:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$312.32Jul 13, 18:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump's approval rating hit 50% in 2026?$94.47Jul 13, 18:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump be impeached by end of 2026?$96.57Jul 13, 18:42 UTC
- TRADESELLOpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?$91.76Jul 13, 18:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?$89.18Jul 13, 18:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?$6.00Jul 13, 18:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?$30.92Jul 13, 18:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump's approval rating hit 20% in 2026?$17.60Jul 13, 18:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump's approval rating hit 30% in 2026?$28.44Jul 13, 18:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?$192.74Jul 13, 18:39 UTC
- TRADESELLPutin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?$240.00Jul 13, 18:39 UTC
- TRADESELLPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?$180.00Jul 13, 18:39 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Denmark Military clash before 2027?$452.91Jul 13, 18:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump's approval rating hit 48% in 2026?$12.58Jul 13, 18:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump's approval rating hit 47% in 2026?$19.66Jul 13, 18:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump's approval rating hit 46% in 2026?$51.20Jul 13, 18:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump's approval rating hit 45% in 2026?$6.32Jul 13, 18:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?$526.35Jul 13, 18:33 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
83% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 67/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $221.23
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 28, 00:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.