Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?
Probability
12¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
-2.5pp
24h Vol
$270.48
Liquidity
$2.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
-2.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5990.7h
- 09:15SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5991h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 12¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 12¢
- 07:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 12¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 14¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 13¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 14¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 14¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 14¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if George R. R. Martin publicly and explicitly announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that an installment of A Song of Ice and Fire titled "The Winds of Winter" will be released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "The Winds of Winter" (e.g., Fire & Blood, A Sworn Sword) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The book must have the words "The Winds of Winter" in the title to qualify. This market is concerned only with the announcement of release. The resolution source for this market will be official information from George R. R. Martin or a consensus of credible sources.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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