Crowded-Senior
0x1c7bd51e65a4df1635c49422a7c067ad4318275e
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
32
Open notional
$77.18
Total PnL
$-16.43
Realised
$0.48
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 32- YES
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
20 shares @ 61.4¢·now 80.5¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$16.08
$3.82
- NO
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
8 shares @ 65.6¢·now 83.5¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$6.90
$1.48
- NO
Will Matt Claman advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?
6 shares @ 81.0¢·now 98.7¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$6.40
$1.15
- NO
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
5 shares @ 92.0¢·now 95.8¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$5.12
$0.20
- NO
Will Honório Augusto Lopes win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
5 shares @ 89.9¢·now 97.3¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$4.90
$0.37
- YES
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
19 shares @ 27.0¢·now 25.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$4.90
$-0.29
- NO
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
10 shares @ 53.0¢·now 44.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$4.36
$-0.83
- NO
Will the Republican Party win the IL-01 House seat?
4 shares @ 93.3¢·now 94.7¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$4.22
$0.06
- YES
Will the Democratic Party win the IL-02 House seat?
4 shares @ 94.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$3.82
$-0.02
- NO
Will Tim Greimel be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10?
3 shares @ 90.0¢·now 96.9¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$3.03
$0.21
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Mark Warner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Virginia?$1.28Jul 2, 13:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Brooks Rogowski be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft?$2.04Jul 2, 13:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?$2.05Jul 2, 13:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Christine Drazan win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?$2.54Jul 2, 13:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Antonio Delgado win the 2026 New York Democratic Gubernatorial Primary?$5.22Jul 2, 13:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?$6.88Jul 2, 13:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?$6.94Jul 2, 13:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?$1.30May 26, 16:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Marie Gluesenkamp Perez advance to the general election for WA-03?$1.44May 26, 05:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% or more?$2.81May 26, 01:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% or more?$3.03May 25, 08:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?$1.22May 20, 00:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?$1.01May 19, 23:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?$1.60May 19, 23:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?$1.04May 15, 14:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?$5.06May 11, 19:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?$1.24May 11, 15:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?$0.79May 11, 15:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?$0.09May 11, 15:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?$0.01May 11, 15:47 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $1.75
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 24, 19:05 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 2, 13:57 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.