0x24b03f6a81125694a17cdf8cf8cf5eab9833b5b6
0x24b03f6a81125694a17cdf8cf8cf5eab9833b5b6
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
11
Open notional
$40.12
Total PnL
$-14.93
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- NO
Will José Mário Vaz win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
5 shares @ 99.9¢·now 97.4¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$4.96
$-0.13
- NO
Will Baciro Djá win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
5 shares @ 99.9¢·now 97.3¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$4.95
$-0.14
- NO
Will PT win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?
5 shares @ 99.9¢·now 97.0¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$4.94
$-0.15
- NO
Will PS win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?
5 shares @ 99.9¢·now 94.4¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$4.81
$-0.28
- NO
Will FLING win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?
5 shares @ 99.9¢·now 93.8¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$4.78
$-0.31
- NO
Will Siga Batista win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
5 shares @ 99.9¢·now 93.5¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$4.76
$-0.33
- NO
Will Democratic National Rally (RND) win the most seats in the 2026 Algerian parliamentary elections?
5 shares @ 98.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$4.69
$0.05
- YES
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Runoff by at least 15%?
5 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$4.65
$0.01
- YES
Will Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?
5 shares @ 99.8¢·now 30.9¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$1.58
$-3.51
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 8PM ET
5 shares @ 99.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2025$0.00
$-5.21
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Autodesk Q1 billings be above $2.0B?$4.83Jul 7, 00:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Democratic National Rally (RND) win the most seats in the 2026 Algerian parliamentary elections?$4.64Jul 2, 23:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill the June 2026 unemployment rate be ≤3.9%?$4.64Jul 2, 14:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the June 2026 unemployment rate be ≤3.9%?$4.63Jul 2, 08:25 UTC
- REDEEMWTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $67 on July 1?$4.64Jul 1, 23:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $67 on July 1?$4.64Jul 1, 20:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June?$4.66Jul 1, 08:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June?$4.66Jun 30, 17:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the median home value in Miami be between $1,204,000 and $1,237,000 on June 30?$4.67Jun 30, 15:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the median home value in New York City be between $585,000 and $592,000 on June 30?$4.67Jun 30, 15:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the median home value in Miami be between $1,204,000 and $1,237,000 on June 30?$4.67Jun 30, 04:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the median home value in New York City be between $585,000 and $592,000 on June 30?$4.67Jun 30, 03:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?$4.64Jun 27, 09:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Runoff by at least 15%?$4.64Jun 24, 03:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon post "IPO" on X this week?$4.67Jun 22, 09:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon post "IPO" on X this week?$4.59Jun 22, 03:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?$4.58Jun 21, 19:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Alignment" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?$4.70Jun 20, 02:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Alignment" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?$4.70Jun 19, 23:57 UTC
- REDEEMBank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2026 meeting?$4.71Jun 18, 13:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
25 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 25
- Avg trade size
- $4.69
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 26, 22:25 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 7, 00:55 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.