Talkative-Amount
0x28479383db3df8080f2c064c541072c83362952f
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
28
Open notional
$676.10
Total PnL
$-507.30
Realised
$-20.70
Win rate
43%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 28- NO
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?
199 shares @ 81.0¢·now 74.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$148.16
$-13.03
- NO
Kurds declare independence from Iran?
135 shares @ 70.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$135.00
$40.50
- NO
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
100 shares @ 38.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$100.00
$61.41
- NO
Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch?
120 shares @ 81.0¢·now 61.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$73.80
$-23.40
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
49 shares @ 65.2¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$44.34
$12.39
- NO
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?
127 shares @ 64.8¢·now 26.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$33.66
$-48.67
- NO
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?
60 shares @ 78.0¢·now 54.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$32.70
$-14.10
- YES
Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting?
29 shares @ 70.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$29.38
$8.73
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
31 shares @ 37.0¢·now 76.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$23.71
$12.24
- YES
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026?
63 shares @ 72.0¢·now 17.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$11.02
$-34.34
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026?$24.43Jul 2, 00:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Harvey Weinstein be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?$5.00Jul 2, 00:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$42.00Jul 2, 00:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?$55.00Jul 2, 00:04 UTC
- REDEEMIran coup attempt by June 30?$60.00Jul 2, 00:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?$90.00Jul 2, 00:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026?$102.08Jul 2, 00:04 UTC
- REDEEMFed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?$10.50Jun 18, 00:04 UTC
- REDEEMECB rate hike in 2026?$61.00Jun 16, 21:54 UTC
- REDEEMIran leadership change by May 31?$6.00Jun 2, 00:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia capture Viroliubivka by April 30?$4.29May 1, 07:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia enter Vasylivka by April 30, 2026?$5.00May 1, 07:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?$15.00May 1, 07:04 UTC
- REDEEMKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?$40.00May 1, 06:54 UTC
- REDEEMIran leadership change by April 30?$79.00May 1, 06:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting?$0.00Apr 30, 16:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting?$0.00Apr 30, 16:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 0-3%?$1.33Apr 29, 12:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 3-6%?$15.00Apr 29, 12:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?$25.00Apr 29, 12:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
43% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 5, 07:47 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 2, 00:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.