Tart-Spear
0x2b56389c154e8e572aedf90f0027a1009e146431
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
21
Open notional
$55.14
Total PnL
$60.65
Realised
$59.30
Win rate
100%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- NO
Will Jiří Procházka be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
8 shares @ 61.0¢·now 99.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.17
$3.17
- YES
Will the US federal government take a stake in GlobalFoundries Inc.?
10 shares @ 52.0¢·now 79.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.63
$2.63
- NO
Will Jeff Yan appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?
10 shares @ 49.0¢·now 61.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$6.15
$1.25
- NO
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?
5 shares @ 56.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.80
$1.25
- YES
Will the Republican Party win the NY-01 House seat?
5 shares @ 50.0¢·now 75.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$3.39
$1.13
- NO
Will Jeff Bezos be 2nd richest person on December 31?
3 shares @ 70.0¢·now 97.4¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$3.25
$0.91
- NO
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $6B in 2026?
4 shares @ 55.0¢·now 65.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.91
$0.47
- NO
Will Canada’s 2026 inflation be between 2.0% and 2.4%?
5 shares @ 56.0¢·now 63.1¢·exp Jan 18, 2027$2.87
$0.32
- NO
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
3 shares @ 57.0¢·now 88.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.65
$0.93
- YES
Mike Locksley out as Maryland HC in 2026?
4 shares @ 51.0¢·now 57.3¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.57
$0.28
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal?$2.00Jul 23, 16:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June?$2.10Jul 1, 07:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June?$2.50Jul 1, 07:10 UTC
- REDEEMKadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026?$2.47Jul 1, 06:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill OpenAI GPT score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?$1.96Jul 1, 06:09 UTC
- REDEEMMargot Robbie divorce by June 30?$3.26Jul 1, 06:04 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$3.27Jun 30, 00:45 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET$6.37Jun 29, 14:20 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - June 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET$5.00Jun 29, 14:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET$2.80Jun 29, 14:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET$2.05Jun 29, 14:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET$0.67Jun 29, 14:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET$2.05Jun 29, 14:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - June 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET$4.45Jun 29, 14:12 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4AM ET$10.00Jun 29, 09:12 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3AM ET$88.19Jun 29, 08:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4AM ET$4.90Jun 29, 08:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3AM ET$5.90Jun 29, 07:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3AM ET$4.00Jun 29, 07:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3AM ET$5.70Jun 29, 07:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
32/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $3.46
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 29, 06:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 16:41 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.