Will Jeff Yan appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?
Probability
36¢
1h
-1.5pp
24h
-1.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$819.22
Probability (last 7 days)
-15.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 2pp over 24h
Now 36¢; -1.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 6013h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 16.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 6013.2h
- 15:48SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 6013h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.5pp
to 38¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 38¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.0pp
to 36¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.0pp
to 36¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.0pp
to 36¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.5pp
to 36¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 37¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.5pp
to 37¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.5pp
to 37¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 37¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.0pp
to 35¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 38¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 38¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 38¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.5pp
to 38¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.0pp
to 36¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 36¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 36¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.5pp
to 36¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.5pp
to 36¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 47¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.0pp
to 37¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 39¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 45¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.0pp
to 36¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.0pp
to 36¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 40¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.5pp
to 35¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a new episode of the UpOnly podcast featuring the specified guest is publicly released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” “Released” means the full episode is published and available to the general public on an official UpOnly platform (e.g. YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or the show’s official feed). Previews, clips, teasers, or promotional material do not count toward resolution. The resolution source will be the official UpOnly podcast channels and/or a consensus of credible public reporting.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (16.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).