White-Quarter
0x3057b5f8ee6d187ec687243a4a96a9860845bf7b
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$3.3K
Total PnL
$-1.7K
Realised
$866.64
Win rate
8%
149 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison?
612 shares @ 81.8¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$578.22
$77.90
- NO
Will Santiago Abascal be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
430 shares @ 91.6¢·now 95.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2028$408.57
$14.99
- NO
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
400 shares @ 70.8¢·now 79.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$317.99
$34.76
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
300 shares @ 90.8¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$286.57
$14.22
- NO
Will Sir Alex Ferguson attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?
250 shares @ 80.4¢·now 91.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$227.46
$26.54
- NO
Will Edu Aguirre attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?
216 shares @ 84.9¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$204.03
$20.82
- YES
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
1000 shares @ 13.6¢·now 12.3¢·exp Mar 31, 2028$122.55
$-13.99
- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
150 shares @ 57.5¢·now 63.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$95.25
$8.95
- NO
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?
100 shares @ 77.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$83.50
$6.50
- YES
Will Eric Barlow win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election?
100 shares @ 63.4¢·now 71.2¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$71.20
$7.80
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Sir Alex Ferguson attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?$12.01Aug 13, 09:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Marcelo attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?$1.76Aug 13, 09:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Sergio Ramos attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?$2.03Aug 13, 09:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rio Ferdinand attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?$3.00Aug 13, 09:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on August 15?$13.54Aug 13, 08:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on August 15?$4.75Aug 13, 08:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on August 15?$11.30Aug 13, 08:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 15?$6.90Aug 13, 08:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?$32.26Aug 13, 08:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?$17.74Aug 13, 08:02 UTC
- REDEEMNational Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Brandon Nakashima$100.00Aug 13, 00:47 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 13, 00:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jose Mourinho attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?$6.49Aug 12, 22:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?$50.00Aug 12, 21:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill IShowSpeed attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?$0.74Aug 12, 19:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Edu Aguirre attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?$13.39Aug 12, 19:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?$24.00Aug 12, 19:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 14?$4.89Aug 12, 18:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 14?$3.90Aug 12, 18:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 14?$21.30Aug 12, 17:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
8% win rate over 149 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
149 closed markets, 8% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $29.70
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 11, 19:34 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 13, 09:06 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 149 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.