Will Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?
Probability
18¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
-4.5pp
24h Vol
$72.91
Liquidity
$26.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
-3.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 5pp over 24h
Now 18¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Momentum signal firing
Probability moved down 4.5pp in 24h with 0.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- 3
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 2575h with open resolution ambiguity.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 2574.7h
- 17:15SignalMEDIUM
Signal · Momentum down
Probability moved down 4.5pp in 24h with 0.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- 17:15SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 2575h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 18¢
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 19¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 19¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 19¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 19¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 19¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 19¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 19¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 19¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 25¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 25¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 24¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 24¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 24¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 27¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 24¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Minnesota. If no 2026 Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Minnesota Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Aug 11, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- natoOfficial government sourceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.