Taut-Blessing-Drinking
0x317e0feef656c82db87ea25e51bdd62fed7862e2
Wallet digest
Activity score
79/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
11
Open notional
$54.62
Total PnL
$-3.38
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- NO
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
11 shares @ 92.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$10.38
$0.38
- NO
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
11 shares @ 94.0¢·now 94.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.09
$0.09
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?
7 shares @ 71.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$7.04
$2.04
- NO
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
6 shares @ 89.7¢·now 91.9¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$5.12
$0.12
- NO
Will the People Power Party (PPP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections?
5 shares @ 99.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 3, 2026$5.04
$0.04
- NO
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House
5 shares @ 97.8¢·now 98.3¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$5.02
$0.02
- NO
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
5 shares @ 98.9¢·now 99.1¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$5.01
$0.01
- YES
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
8 shares @ 61.0¢·now 57.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$4.71
$-0.29
- NO
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
3 shares @ 60.0¢·now 38.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$1.28
$-0.72
- NO
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
1 shares @ 67.0¢·now 61.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.92
$-0.08
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?$1.87May 31, 22:34 UTC
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?$1.98May 31, 22:34 UTC
- TRADESELLRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?$1.98May 31, 22:34 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$1.97May 31, 22:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a country leave BRICS in 2026?$1.94May 31, 22:34 UTC
- TRADESELLIsraeli parliament dissolved by June 15?$1.97May 31, 22:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?$1.82May 31, 22:34 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?$1.99May 31, 22:34 UTC
- TRADESELLUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?$2.96May 31, 22:34 UTC
- TRADESELLUS strike on Cuba by December 31?$1.91May 31, 22:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June?$4.99May 31, 22:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?$4.99May 31, 22:34 UTC
- TRADESELLMojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?$4.98May 31, 22:34 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?$4.96May 31, 22:34 UTC
- TRADESELLSaudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by June 30?$4.93May 31, 22:34 UTC
- TRADESELLIsraeli forces enter Beirut by June 30?$4.94May 31, 22:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alberta join the US? $4.99May 31, 22:34 UTC
- TRADESELLStarmer out by June 15, 2026?$5.04May 31, 22:34 UTC
- TRADESELLHantavirus pandemic in 2026?$4.98May 31, 22:34 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?$4.94May 31, 22:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $7.82
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 31, 21:39 UTC
- Last active
- May 31, 22:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.