Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?
Probability
23¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$16.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
-3.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5980h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 8.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5980.3h
- 19:39SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 5980h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-0.5pp over the last 24h, now 23¢.
Biggest hourly move: -4.0pp at 2d ago (to 24¢).
Show all 11 hour-by-hour ticks
- 1d ago · -3.5pp → 24¢
- 1d ago · -3.0pp → 24¢
- 1d ago · -3.5pp → 24¢
- 2d ago · -4.0pp → 24¢
- 2d ago · -3.5pp → 24¢
- 2d ago · -3.5pp → 24¢
- 2d ago · -3.0pp → 24¢
- 2d ago · -3.5pp → 24¢
- 2d ago · -3.0pp → 24¢
- 2d ago · -3.0pp → 24¢
- 2d ago · -3.0pp → 24¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from BRICS or provides an official notice of denunciation to BRICS between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal. The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and BRICS; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (8.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.