Grounded-Depression
0x35bbbad2415fe5e39b12da9a316cdc80b022009b
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
44
Open notional
$185.7K
Total PnL
$4.8K
Realised
$4.1K
Win rate
89%
19 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 44- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
74512 shares @ 73.7¢·now 75.4¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$56.2K
$1.3K
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?
35000 shares @ 98.3¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$34.9K
$498.12
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?
17500 shares @ 97.9¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 27, 2026$17.5K
$342.53
- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
19565 shares @ 59.1¢·now 63.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$12.4K
$853.13
- NO
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?
10374 shares @ 92.0¢·now 97.1¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$10.1K
$534.22
- YES
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?
9165 shares @ 92.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$9.2K
$692.28
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?
7500 shares @ 99.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$7.5K
$33.75
- NO
Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
5803 shares @ 94.1¢·now 96.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.6K
$121.93
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
21868 shares @ 24.0¢·now 23.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.1K
$-109.12
- NO
US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?
4393 shares @ 95.0¢·now 96.8¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$4.2K
$76.87
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?$2.9KJul 28, 23:33 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29?$886.19Jul 28, 23:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$3.8KJul 28, 23:23 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$823.23Jul 28, 23:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$1.9KJul 28, 23:14 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$1.84Jul 28, 23:13 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$7.38Jul 28, 23:13 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$37.10Jul 28, 23:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29?$1.0KJul 28, 23:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29?$144.02Jul 28, 23:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$1.6KJul 28, 23:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$2.02Jul 28, 23:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$250.00Jul 28, 23:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$1.4KJul 28, 23:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$858.93Jul 28, 22:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$86.35Jul 28, 22:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$283.14Jul 28, 22:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$1.5KJul 28, 22:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$10.1KJul 28, 22:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29?$2.2KJul 28, 22:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentLedger volume
$246.2K
Trades
4
Buy share
84%
Window
May 21, 10:30 UTC → Jul 11, 14:11 UTC
- BUYWill Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$31.9K@100¢Jun 24, 14:24 UTC
- BUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$7.3K@76¢Jun 19, 10:32 UTC
- BUYWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?$8.1K@65¢Jun 13, 11:05 UTC
- SELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$5.8K@56¢May 21, 10:27 UTC
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
89% win rate over 19 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 14 ledger trades, copy-risk 62/100.
19 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
84%
Sample
medium
14 ledger trades
Top market concentration
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
$106.4K · 43% of recorded whale volume
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $1.2K
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 08:07 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 23:33 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 19 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.