Frivolous-Countryside
0x35e14e60d5ce74c1dac16ac7db982e2e17cff41d
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
30
Open notional
$14.2K
Total PnL
$523.87
Realised
$-217.61
Win rate
89%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 30- NO
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026?
6636 shares @ 85.0¢·now 95.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.3K
$685.02
- NO
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?
1504 shares @ 84.2¢·now 85.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.3K
$19.09
- NO
Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2026?
1123 shares @ 95.4¢·now 96.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.1K
$14.85
- NO
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2026?
983 shares @ 89.8¢·now 97.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$961.46
$78.95
- NO
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
989 shares @ 92.2¢·now 93.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$919.32
$8.00
- NO
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?
584 shares @ 86.1¢·now 92.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$537.00
$34.28
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
548 shares @ 82.5¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$496.08
$44.12
- NO
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?
423 shares @ 79.6¢·now 94.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$399.05
$62.73
- NO
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?
400 shares @ 82.6¢·now 85.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$340.00
$9.70
- NO
Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
316 shares @ 89.2¢·now 85.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$270.18
$-11.72
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.05Jul 29, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 28, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 27, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed emergency rate cut before 2027?$28.00Jul 26, 13:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill inflation reach more than 8% in 2026?$0.52Jul 26, 13:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill inflation reach more than 8% in 2026?$44.06Jul 26, 13:04 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 26, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027?$37.83Jul 26, 00:07 UTC
- TRADESELLFight to Go the Distance?$23.38Jul 25, 15:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYFight to Go the Distance?$25.12Jul 25, 15:35 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 25, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.7% before 2027?$7.81Jul 24, 09:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.7% before 2027?$0.80Jul 24, 00:41 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 24, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027?$16.93Jul 23, 21:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027?$46.04Jul 23, 12:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?$864.50Jul 23, 12:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 23, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July?$87.45Jul 22, 13:34 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
89% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 65/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $58.43
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 14, 00:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.