Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.7% before 2027?
Probability
36¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-15.5pp
24h Vol
$5.00
Liquidity
$528.39
Probability (last 7 days)
+1.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 16pp over 24h
Now 36¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5985h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 52.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5984.7h
- 15:19SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5985h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.5pp
to 37¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.0pp
to 36¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.0pp
to 36¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.0pp
to 36¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.0pp
to 36¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.5pp
to 43¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.0pp
to 36¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 35¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 32¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.5pp
to 36¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 31¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.0pp
to 34¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.0pp
to 36¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 28.0pp
to 51¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 28.5pp
to 52¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 28.0pp
to 51¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 28.0pp
to 51¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 28.0pp
to 51¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 28.0pp
to 51¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 27.5pp
to 51¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 28.0pp
to 51¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 27.0pp
to 50¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 39.5pp
to 63¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 35¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 35¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 35¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 35¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 35¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (52.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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