Flickering-Alpha
0x3832289e6aca6b9444f6d9a4a2a8392f434535e1
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
135
Open notional
$4.1K
Total PnL
$-19.2K
Realised
$-82.31
Win rate
33%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 135- YES
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
836 shares @ 64.0¢·now 79.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$660.76
$125.76
- YES
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
1031 shares @ 59.9¢·now 60.5¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$623.97
$5.97
- YES
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?
563 shares @ 65.5¢·now 63.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$354.79
$-14.00
- NO
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?
366 shares @ 82.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Jun 13, 2026$334.76
$34.76
- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
370 shares @ 54.0¢·now 52.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$194.49
$-5.51
- YES
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
222 shares @ 54.0¢·now 76.5¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$170.00
$50.00
- YES
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
282 shares @ 62.0¢·now 60.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$169.30
$-5.70
- YES
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
3220 shares @ 4.7¢·now 5.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$159.37
$9.38
- YES
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?
300 shares @ 24.0¢·now 53.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$159.00
$87.00
- YES
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1573 shares @ 8.9¢·now 7.8¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$123.48
$-16.52
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Scotland win on 2026-06-13?$101.08Jun 13, 17:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?$101.43Jun 13, 17:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$51.49Jun 13, 17:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jun 13, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$51.43Jun 12, 13:21 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by June 15?$327.61Jun 12, 13:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?$300.00Jun 12, 13:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?$152.04Jun 12, 03:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill David Jolly be the Democratic nominee for Florida Governor?$23.88Jun 12, 03:37 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jun 12, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$41.09Jun 11, 19:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$102.86Jun 11, 19:51 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$237.55Jun 11, 19:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$301.46Jun 11, 13:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jun 11, 00:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?$9.27Jun 10, 10:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?$11.28Jun 10, 00:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?$11.93Jun 10, 00:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?$5.29Jun 10, 00:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?$11.28Jun 10, 00:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $116.41
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 1, 23:30 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 13, 17:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.